Today is shaping up negative for Bike24 Holding AG (ETR:BIKE) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year’s forecasts. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting analysts have soured majorly on the business.
Following the downgrade, the consensus from three analysts covering Bike24 Holding is for revenues of €243m in 2023, implying a noticeable 4.8% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to creep up to €0.39. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of €276m and €0.34 per share in losses. So there’s been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.
See our latest analysis for Bike24 Holding
The consensus price target fell 12% to €3.50, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Bike24 Holding, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €4.00 and the most bearish at €3.00 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Bike24 Holding is an easy business to forecast or the underlying assumptions are obvious.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 6.3% by the end of 2023. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 0.3% over the last year. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 6.4% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining – Bike24 Holding is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. After such a stark change in sentiment from analysts, we’d understand if readers now felt a bit wary of Bike24 Holding.
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Bike24 Holding going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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